All the signs point to a closer battle this year, although at the moment Red Bull remain beatable only by themselves, it promises to be an interesting few races where we find out who can unlock a precious few tenths.
For it is just those few tenths which could end up making all the difference – the top 5 is separated by just half a second, and the entire field by about 1 second! Norris, dark horse today – definitely had the pace for the front row and perhaps even pole ahead of Max – but the Brit had a mistake worth over 3 tenths in sector one. He could surprise in the race.
Qualifying was also notable for Alonso’s heroics, although his final outcome of 6th doesn’t tell the full story, so close was the gap to P2 any number of drivers behind Max have a chance for a podium tomorrow. Surely there’s more to come from Aston Martin.
Ferrari look strongest behind Red Bull, and Perez has decided to carry on where he left off – 5th place in the fastest team, perhaps higher up in the race but equally as likely to DNF.
Russell is in the mix although Hamilton will be disappointed with 9th.
A special mention to Hulkenberg, the most underrated driver on the grid made it easily through to Q3 with a stunning lap good enough for 6th. This in a car that most people pre-season had as being dead last. That unenvious position is actually occupied by the Alpine team who have haemorrhaged top talent since the wreaking ball of Laurent Rossi struck. A driver pairing at war, a team rocked by politics, the Enstone team which finished an excellent 4th in the constructors in 2022 is now officially in crisis. There are reports the car is 10kg overweight too.
I think Max will be looking over his shoulder a bit more come race day. More than the entirety of 2023. The new Red Bull is a very different concept, and probably needs a bit more dialling in versus the cars that are more of an evolution than revolution. I also can’t help but think the Horner situation and his presence in the garage today acted as a distraction. A lot will depend on how truthful he has been with his closest confidants in the team prior the leak revealing all in cold light, and whether the leaked messages are in fact genuine. At least on the technical side the team has given itself a nice new start, a platform which can be built on at pace until 2026 without the law of diminishing returns throttling things too much. Indeed, if their rivals have been inspired a bit too much by last year’s Red Bull, by comparison the brand new Red Bull concept will have more legs.
Albon remains the stand out Williams driver. Sergeant urgently needs improvement. This is in all likeness his last season. The only question is whether he will lose his seat before race 24. Like Red Bull, the new Williams car is very different, and offers a bigger potential for development than simply evolving last year’s model.
Sauber will be disappointed, but 24 and 25 were always going to be a stop gap until Audi. Whether or not Audi will do a corporate F1 approach aka Toyota, will define where they go from 26! By which time, I think mullet-man will be retired to a Melbourne beach. Personally, I rate Zhou more, he is only at the very start of his career unlike Bottas, so could have a promising future at Audi if he can just find better consistency.
Listening to Charles Leclerc, he’s disappointed with P2. Ferrari expected to be the fastest team after testing. No need to panic though – they’ve made a big step forward, everything correlates between factory and track, two superbly fast drivers who are both firing on both cylinders, with Charles having the advantage on pure pace especially in quali, and Sainz proving his racing-inteligence most Sundays, nip and tuck with Leclerc in terms of points at the end of the year.
Horner entered the garage, looking sheepish. With the support of the Thai side of Red Bull, the team expected to put aside the allegations and keep everything hush hush. The internet had other ideas. The most curious thing for me is not anything in Horner’s personal life, but the identity of who leaked and their agenda. Suspects can only be speculated at, it could be his accuser, unhappy with the cover-up and having her (seemingly quite valid, in my opinion) complaints dismissed so readily. I don’t buy the talk of a rift between the Verstappens and Horner, or Marko and Horner. If there’s a power struggle, it’s far more likely to be with Mintzlaff or even Mark Mateschitz. His father reportedly had a contract with the majority 51% Thai owners of Red Bull for sole control of the company. That contract expired when he died, and didn’t get passed down to Mintzlaff or son Mark.
Now, with Chalerm Yoovidhya in full control of the Red Bull drinks corporation, and reports of Alex Albon being promised a seat at the main team by Horner to appease the master (there are even reports of Bernie Ecclestone brokering an agreement in the background), the Austrians including Mintzlaff might be feeling vulnerable, even dispensable, in a way that Dietrich never did.
My race predictions:
- Leclerc
- Verstappen
- Norris
- Sainz
- Russell
- Alonso
- Hamilton
- Albon
- Perez
- Hulkenberg
One driver I haven’t mentioned yet is Piastri. His form so far this weekend strongly hints at an enormous gap to Norris. Has he lost some of the magic that made it much closer last year?
Will McLaren find a rather lovely mid-season improvement yet again that springs them into P1?
With the spread of the field so much closer this year, maybe small differences can cause a bit of an upset. I for one, can’t wait.
